Day 2: Little change in medal projection, 11-goal soccer thriller, brilliant Biles
One piece to which I’ll return quite often during these Games is my preview breaking down the medal-count battle between the USA and China.
So far, both countries are on pace to attain roughly the same totals I predicted, especially after a post-publication adjustment I made for the US gold-medal tally after late roster changes:
USA gold: Projected 47.85. On pace for 47.83.
USA medals: Projected 126.10. On pace for 128.63.
China gold: Projected 39.93. On pace for 39.38.
China medals: Projected 93.35. On pace for 91.17.
That’s not to say we haven’t seen any surprises. My biggest miss so far was when I listed women’s foil fencing as one of the least likely events in which the USA would repeat its gold medal from Tokyo. The USA actually finished 1–2 in that event, with Lee Kiefer successfully defending her Olympic title and Lauren Scruggs upsetting top-ranked Arianna Errigo en route to the final.
Other surprises today:
- Women’s 100 butterfly: I figured on one medal from this event, and probably not gold. It was another US 1–2, thanks to Torri Huske (DMV!) and Gretchen Walsh, who broke the Olympic record in qualifying.
- Women’s mountain bike: Kind of a mild surprise, but I didn’t have Haley Batten on the podium. She took silver with a brilliant performance on the last lap after bouncing back from a tire puncture.
- Women’s air pistol: I gave China a 94% chance of medaling. They did not.
- Men’s air pistol: I have China a 26% chance of taking gold. They did. Maybe I just got those two rows confused …
- Men’s 100 breaststroke: I expected a medal for China, maybe a gold. Didn’t happen.
- Women’s team archery: I definitely did not expect a medal for China.
Adequately projected medals or misses
In addition to projecting one medal — just not gold and not a double — in women’s foil and women’s 100 fly, I correctly called China picking up a medal in the women’s 100 fly (bronze behind the two Americans) and the USA getting a medal in the men’s 400 medley.
Was it a surprise that the USA didn’t medal in women’s street skateboarding? Not really, no. China actually had better chances, but only 30%. And China was close — Cui Chenxi was fourth, followed by US skaters Poe Pinson and Paige Heyn. Pinson needed to land two clutch tricks to reach the final.
Goals, goals, goals
In my preview of the USA-Zambia women’s soccer game, I noted Zambia’s explosive offense and leaky defense. Neither really materialized in that game, and it was a routine win for the USA.
Today, the explosive offense put Zambia up 5–2 against Australia. But I mentioned the defense, right?
Simone Biles isn’t human
The women’s gymnastics qualifications began modestly enough, with the USA looking slightly wobbly on the balance beam but posting decent scores until Simone Biles stepped up and showed everyone how it’s done.
Then Biles went to warm up on the floor exercise … and got hurt. She had to get taped up, and she was visibly limping at times the rest of the day.
Shades of Kerri Strug followed. Biles landed an awesome floor exercise routine. Then her trademark vaults. She even had a solid uneven bars routine, which is by far her worst event but may have been reassuring today because she only had one more landing.
She finished far ahead of the field in qualification, and the US team is downplaying any thoughts of the injury being an issue when medals are at stake.
Jade Carey, meanwhile, was sick. She had an uncharacteristic floor exercise that included a fall out of the competition surface. But she rallied as well in the vault.
The Tokyo veterans all got what they came for. Defending all-around champion Suni Lee needed a big score on the uneven bars to qualify to defend her title — not because she was in danger of finishing outside the top 24, but because only two athletes per country can compete in that final, she had to beat out teammate Jordan Chiles. They finished 1–3–4 in qualification (Brazil’s Rebeca Andrade was second), but Chiles won’t get to chase an all-around medal.
Chiles will have a shot on the floor exercise, though, qualifying third behind Biles and Andrade. Lee will be in the final on uneven bars and balance beam. And Carey shook off the floor exercise issues and landed two good vaults to qualify third in that event, also behind Biles and Andrade.
So the USA will have two participants in every final except uneven bars, where Biles just missed out in ninth. I don’t think she minds.
What else happened?
Soccer: After being held to three goals against Zambia, the US women netted four against Germany. Go figure. They looked good, even if they gave up a goal and some solid chances that gave goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher a chance to shine.
That said, the best goalkeeping of the day was in Angola’s upset over Spain in women’s handball.
Basketball: The US men looked shaky in their pre-Games exhibitions, but they wiped out Serbia 110–84. We don’t know why Jayson Tatum didn’t play, though.
Table tennis: Kanak Jha advanced in men’s singles once again. Lily Zhang also moved forward in the women’s event.
Tennis: Advancing — Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula, Danielle Collins, Tommy Paul and Emma Navarro. Not advancing — Marcos Giron and Christopher Eubanks.
Boxing: Easy win for Roscoe Hill over a representative from the Refugee Olympic Team, which might not be the most competitive group of athletes in the Games but is a terrific thing to have.
Swimming: Erin Gemmell, who replaced Katie Ledecky in the women’s 200 freestyle, didn’t make the final, finishing ninth. The most interesting finish was in the men’s 100 breaststroke, where Nic Fink tied for silver.
Shooting, archery, equestrian, water polo (men’s) and sailing: Not a great day for the US teams, though the Italy-USA water polo game treated us to a coach at halftime yelling, “Don’t do anything stupid! Don’t punch anyone!”
Rugby, rowing and beach volleyball: A great day for the US teams. The rugby women won 36–7 and 24–5. The rowers, shockingly shut out of the medals in Tokyo, advanced several boats past the repechages into the next round. World champions Sara Hughes and Kelly Cheng flew through their first match on the beach.
